Recently, numerous national and international weather models anticipated the emergence of a low-pressure system over the central Bay of Bengal on October 21, which would intensify into a depression on October 22 and a cyclonic storm on October 23.
The system is forecast to continue northwestward, nearing Odisha’s coast. Various models have generated different predictions about its intensity.
According to the Global Forecast System model, the storm may become a strong cyclonic storm over the sea before weakening and making landfall in Odisha with no substantial wind damage. However, strong to extremely heavy rain is forecast around the coast.
According to renowned weather analyst Sharat Sahu, the current low-pressure system is bringing rain to Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and southern Andhra Pradesh. Between October 16 and 18, some areas of Odisha may have light to moderate rain. However, he warned that expecting a cyclone after October 20 is premature.
On the other hand, the India Meteorological Department said that a depression over the southwest Bay of Bengal had moved west-northwestward at 12 kmph in the last six hours. It is currently located approximately 360 kilometers east-southeast of Chennai, Tamil Nadu, 390 kilometers east of Puducherry, and 450 kilometers southeast of Nellore, Andhra Pradesh.
According to the IMD, the depression would continue moving west-northwest, crossing the north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh beaches between Puducherry and Nellore, near Chennai, in the early morning hours of October 17, 2024.